- Policy & Legislation
- Pricing & Funding
Deloitte flags SA as most exposed state to NDIS budget tightening
Key points5 points
- Federal legislation passed in August caps the NDIS budget at roughly $55 billion a year by 2030, down from a projected $70 billion, through reduced social and community participation funding and stricter eligibility.
- Deloitte projects SA's NDIS outlay at $1.3 billion below the earlier trajectory by 2030, the equivalent of 10,000 to 15,000 federally funded care and administrative jobs.
- Children under nine with developmental delays or autism and low to moderate support needs are moving to Thriving Kids, which is funded at about $46.6 million a year in SA against an estimated $310 million cohort requirement in 2031.
- The SA government has confirmed no plans to increase its $135.5 million Thriving Kids contribution, meaning providers should expect unfunded gaps and rising demand on state-funded services.
- Thriving Kids begins its first phase in October 2026, with full rollout by January 2028, so providers should prepare transition pathways for affected participants now.
Summary
A Deloitte Access Economics report finds South Australia is especially exposed to the federal NDIS budget cap of around $55 billion a year by 2030, which trims social and community participation funding and tightens eligibility.
Deloitte estimates SA's NDIS expenditure could be $1.3 billion lower in 2030, equivalent to 10,000 to 15,000 federally funded roles, and warns that carers may leave the workforce. For children under nine with low to moderate needs, including autism, the Thriving Kids program is funded at about $46.6 million a year against a projected $310 million cohort need. The state government has ruled out increasing its $135.5 million contribution, so providers should plan for service gaps and pressure on state-funded services.